National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --705FXUS61 KGYX 130717AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME317 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024.SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer and sunny today as flow shifts to the southwest. A coldfront crosses New England on Friday, bringing the risk for somesevere storms and locally heavy rainfall. High pressure buildsin behind the front for the weekend. The high moves offshoreearly next week, setting up a moderating trend with warm tempsand heat increasingly likely next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Finally, the persistent 500 MB closed low weakens and shifts NEthrough Newfoundland and Labrador today, allowing for more zonalflow, and more aligned flow down to the sfc with SW flowdeveloping. So, after some morning fog, this will lead to asunny and warmer day, although cooler along the mid coast, andlate developing sea breezes from Casco Bay S, will keep thecoast a little cooler. Highs range from the low 70s on the midcoast to 75-80 in the mtns and the NH and SW ME coast, to thelow to mid 80s other inland areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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S-SW flow gradient tightens up ahead of approaching cold frontovernight, and this should keep some light flow going at all butthe most sheltered areas, so this will make for a milder night,with increasing highs clouds, and lows around 60 in the mtnsand the mid coast to the mid 60s in S NH.On Friday, that front will move in from the NW starting aboutmidday and track through the CWA during the afternoon exiting inthe early evening. Highs of 80-85 can be expected, and the coastwill be warm as well with increasing SW flow in advance of thefront. With clouds and showers arriving earlier in the day themtns will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s. Given the dentheight fall just ahead of the sfc front, and the goodinstability generated outside the mtns with Tds climbing intothe mid 60s, and temps in the low to mid 80s, there is potentialfor severe storms Fri afternoon. There is decent capping aheadof the front, and good deep layer shear of 60-80 kts, so thethreat is there. Of course our usual weak mid level lapse rateswill work against severe, but the threat is there S of the mtns,and is best over S NH and into interior SW ME.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend,bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for Saturdayand Sunday. The high then moves offshore by early next week,helping to set up a warm southwesterly flow with moderatingtemperatures.A ridge builds across the Northeast much of next week, withincreasing confidence for significant heat next week. Highs inthe 90s look likely by Tuesday in many spots, and likelycontinue to climb on Wednesday. Dew points will also be on therise Tuesday and Wednesday, with dew points likely pushing 70degrees by Wednesday. This give heat indices in the upper 90s tolow 100s by Wednesday.This heat is still about a week away, and there are stillseveral factors that could disrupt to core of the heat, such asan MCS or increased cloud cover running around the ridge.However, ensembles look to be trending toward the warmersolutions with several days of heat looking increasingly likely.Lows also look to remain in the 70s across southern and coastalareas starting Wednesday night, so nighttime recovery doesn`tlook substantial either. We`ll continue to monitor it over thenext few days, but that`s how things look to be trending at thispoint.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term...Patchy fog this morning could affect almost anyterminals as we head toward sunrise, but any fog should breakup and return to VFR by 12Z. Otherwise expected VFR today intoFriday morning, as increasing SW flow will likely prevent anyfog tonight. Friday will see a line of thunderstorms movethrough in the afternoon, with tempo flight restrictions andpotential strong gusty winds and hail.Long Term...VFR then prevails from Friday night through earlynext week.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.MARINE...
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Short Term...S-SW winds begin to increase this afternoon andwill likely see gusts to 25 kt and seas to 5 ft late tonightthrough Friday in advance of a cold front. The cold frontcrosses the waters Fri evening, and winds/seas will diminish.Long Term...Fair conditions are then expected for the weekendand early next week as high pressure settles along the EasternSeaboard.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.NH...None.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150- 152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&$$NEAR TERM...CempaSHORT TERM...CempaLONG TERM...Clair